2024 AFC East Betting Preview: Division Winners

While the summer solstice officially marks the beginning of our hottest season, the NFL has already brought an enhanced focus content for the upcoming season. Articles, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming season, and best ball content is flowing like water. Sportsbooks have posted a plethora of future NFL bets such as player props and conference champions.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll provide NFL betting content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key divisional storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my favorite bet to win each division.

AFC East Betting Preview

The Bills have captured four straight AFC East titles, with their latest a result of an incredible late-season rally, winning their last five games and six of their last seven. Buffalo swept the season series with Miami to earn the division title despite sharing identical 11-6 records. Per Sports Odds History, we can see that the projected 2024 AFC East battle is closer than it’s ever been at the start of June. 

Currently, the Bills (+170), Jets (+190) and Dolphins (+200) have similar odds, with the rebuilding Patriots a distant fourth (+2500). This will be one of the most entertaining divisions in football. Can Aaron Rodgers stay healthy and get the Jets back to the playoffs? Does Miami start hot again and finally nab their first division title since 2008, or does this division still belong to Buffalo for a fifth straight season? 

Here’s my betting breakdown of the AFC East.

New England Patriots

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +2500)

There was a major overhaul in New England, starting with the head coach and quarterback position. New England separated from legendary leader Bill Belichick, turning the reins over to one of his disciples, Jarod Mayo. The Patriots also selected UNC quarterback Drake Maye with the third overall pick in this year’s draft and added rocket-armed Joe Milton with their sixth-rounder. New England is in rebuilding mode, as illustrated by their league-low 4.5-game win total. 

The Patriots have a difficult schedule, especially early in the season. They open with games at Cincinnati, Seattle, at the Jets, at San Francisco, Miami and Houston. They also do have a health benefit, as the Patriots will play four games with more rest than their opponent and no games where their opponent has extra rest. It is almost impossible to endorse a division bet on the Patriots in their first year without the greatest coach in NFL history. New England is the only team in the AFC with a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and starting quarterback. They still have concerns on the offensive line and at the wide receiver position, while battling the second-hardest overall schedule per Vegas projected win totals. Brighter days are ahead for the Patriots, but 2024 will be a challenge. 

Buffalo Bills

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +170)

Have the Bills missed their window? It’s possible, but they still have the most talented overall roster in the division. 

Buffalo was extremely run-heavy last season with 30.8 attempts per game, trailing only Baltimore and Chicago. The loss of All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs is mitigated by an underwhelming season that produced 13 straight games (including playoffs) of 87 or fewer receiving yards. Diggs often came off the field on third downs, and there was a growing chasm with quarterback Josh Allen. 

But does this offense have enough weapons? Buffalo fans are putting a lot of faith in 21-year-old rookie wideout Keon Coleman and undersized pass-catchers Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir. The coaching staff raves about tight end Dalton Kincaid, who finished seventh among all tight ends in receptions (73) and sixth in deep targets (7) per the FTN Fantasy tools, but I worry that Diggs’ on-field presence created unrealized opportunities for all Buffalo pass catchers. 

The Bills’ defense also saw a dramatic decrease in DVOA, falling from second in 2022 to 12th last season. While they are now fully healthy, the depth remains a question, which places an even greater importance on limiting turnovers from quarterback Josh Allen. That will necessitate reversing an alarming five-year trend that has seen Allen’s interceptions increase and touchdowns decrease annually. 

I don’t see Buffalo sweeping Miami again, and really feel like the Bills championship window has started to close … in a hurry. 

Miami Dolphins

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +200)

The Dolphins have one of the best offenses in the NFL, ranking third last year with 27.9 points per game, but there are some questions surrounding their defense. The linebacker duo of Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb were both injured late last season, and their return is unknown. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins is now with the Raiders and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel is in Minnesota. Safety Brandon Jones is now with the Broncos, rounding out a big void in Miami’s pass defense. The Dolphins brought in a ton of new players, but did they bring in enough quality? 

Offense sells, which is why I expect the Dolphins to receive the majority of bets to win the AFC East, especially with only the third-best odds per DraftKings. The Dolphins added wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., tight end Jonnu Smith, center Aaron Brewer and more speed-based offensive playmakers via the draft. This offense has the potential to be the NFL’s best, with explosive wide receiver Tyreek Hill again gunning for 2000 receiving yards. 

The question is whether a Miami defense that ranked 18th overall (including 30th against the pass) per DVOA, can improve enough to supplement this offense. After starting 9-3 last season, the Dolphins finished a disappointing 11-6, losing the division title on tiebreakers to Buffalo. A 56-19 pasting in Week 17 at Baltimore was very telling. Miami will take at least one game from Buffalo, putting them right in the mix for the division title. The Dolphins are very tempting, but I still prefer one team much more. 

New York Jets

(DraftKings Division Title Odds: +190)

If not now, when? 

Aaron Rodgers will turn 41 years old in December and needs to stay healthy. He had a thumb injury two years ago and tore his Achilles just a few plays into last season. Assuming full health for Rodgers, there is a lot to like about this Jets roster. 

Running back Breece Hall ended last season with incredible production. He posted 126 total yards or more in four of his last five games, including 95 rushing yards and 96 receiving yards in a 30-28 victory over Washington. New York also added rookies running back Braelon Allen (Wisconsin) and Isaiah Davis (South Dakota State), both of which were mega-producers in college. The Jets added an explosive deep threat wide receiver in Mike Williams and bolstered their offensive line through free agency and the draft. If Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses can stay healthy, this group has a chance to be one of the NFL’s elite units. 

The Jets do have a major schedule challenge as one of the few NFL teams with a stretch of three games in ten days, but that impact is minimized since it occurs during the first three weeks of the season. After a 2023 season where everything went wrong, I’m backing the Jets to win the AFC East for the first time since the 2002 season. 

AFC East Winner Picks

The Pick: New York Jets

The Jets were only 2-4 in the division last season, but Buffalo has fallen back to the pack. New York has the much stronger defense and an improved offensive line. Health is a major concern, but I’m not fading Aaron Rodgers with an elite running back, wide receiver and the best defense in the division. 

Wild Card: Miami Dolphins

Miami will get Phillips and Chubb back later this season, but the team has an easy first-half schedule with six home games in the first 11 games and a Week 6 bye. If the offense remains potent, Miami is a clear playoff team.