Single-Entry NFL DFS Lineup Review for Week 11

Each week, I’ll review my single-entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. We’ll just be looking at my single-entry lineup this week.

The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long term success in GPPs. 

Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance. 

Back to back cashing weeks is nice, but it’s time for a big hit!

The Single-Entry

Every choice we make can be categorized in one of four groups:

1. Bad Process & Bad Outcome
2. Bad Process & Good Outcome
3. Good Process & Bad Outcome
4. Good Process & Good Outcome

We’ll begin with #1:

Bad Process & Bad Outcome

N/A

Bad Process & Good Outcome

N/A

Good Process & Bad Outcome

Jeffery Wilson

Wilson had twenty touches and this end zone target:

The fact that he ended with just 6.8 DraftKings points is astounding.

Ja’Marr Chase

Chase caught a TD and led the team in both air-yards (125) and WOPR (.74). Once again, the fact that he only had 13 DK points is wild. The game script certainly didn’t help, but there was enough opportunity for him, regardless.

Corey Davis

Davis had enough volume (.55 WOPR), but was nowhere near as efficient with his volume as Elijah Moore. If only I’d needed the savings, because I would have been happy with either.

Good Process & Good Outcome

Tua Tagovailoa – Mike Gesicki – Jaylen Waddle

Tagovailoa outscored Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. Gesicki and Waddle combined for over 30. They did more than their fair share.

Davante Adams

Adams was excellent, as usual. Getting him at 13% was icing on the cake, especially since it was Tyreek Hill who took the vast majority of his projected ownership.

Takeaways

If I could do it all over again, I’d make three changes:

1. Switch sides of the Miami game, double-stacking NYJ instead
2. Get from Ja’Marr Chase to Justin Jefferson, for a mini-stack with Adams
3. Use the remaining salary to get to the 49ers defense for the correlation with Wilson and to get off the chalk D/ST

It would have looked like this:

This score would have been 2nd in the $200 Double Spy for $4k. Of course, this is just hindsight being 20/20, especially because I loved Chase not just for his upside and expectation, but because of the correlated leverage he provided over the chalky Tee Higgins. 

Lastly, it’s important to note that I didn’t use MIA – NYJ because of the contrarian nature of the stack – I used them because I really liked the game environment. With Tony Pollard and the pay-down at RB strategy, I didn’t need to get overly contrarian elsewhere, so the low ownership on MIA – NYJ was just a bonus. 

Turkey Day here we come!