Single-entry lineup review for Week 6

Each week, I’ll review my single-entry NFL DFS lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes:

• Single-entry lineup
• Thursday-Monday lineup

The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long-term success in GPPs. 

Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance. 

The SE was underwhelming once again (ugh), but I’m excited to talk about my T-M lineup, including my thoughts on that slate on a weekly basis, as well.

The Single-Entry

Every choice we make can be categorized in one of four groups:

1. Bad Process, Bad Outcome
2. Bad Process, Good Outcome
3. Good Process, Bad Outcome
4. Good Process, Good Outcome

We’ll begin with No. 1:

Bad Process, Bad Outcome

1. Kareem Hunt

Did you know the Browns were without their two starting tackles? I didn’t, and I’m not quite sure how I missed it, other than the fact that it was under-reported around the industry. I knew Kareem Hunt would only be in line for just a little more rushing opportunity and about the same receiving opportunity as usual, so the matchup was crucial for playing such heavy chalk. The problem — the projected rushing efficiency didn’t factor in the absence of two of PFF’s highest-graded run-blocking tackles. 

Lesson learned: News sources like the Sleeper app aren’t sufficient. Fortunately for us, we have FTN’s incredible practice report.

Another thing: I was torn between the Cincy stack and a Kyler Murray/Arizona stack. A Hunt ceiling performance would have been excellent for Arizona stacks, so I shouldn’t have played Hunt unless I chose Kyler and company.

Bad Process, Good Outcome

N/A

Good Process, Bad Outcome

1. Cincinnati/Detroit game stack

Cincy stood out because Joe Burrow and the Bengals had the highest projected yards per attempt according to our new Offensive Efficiency Report. Well, he finished with 9.3 yards per attempt and 3 TDs. This stack failed because Detroit wasn’t able to remain competitive, leading to just 29 pass attempts.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins tied for first on the team in targets, but the TDs went elsewhere, and Higgins only caught three balls. 

Lastly, what little success Detroit did find mostly flowed through T.J. Hockenson, D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. A competitive game likely would have meant ceiling outcomes for all three.

Good Process, Good Outcome

1. Travis Kelce

There’s not much to say here. Eight receptions on 11 targets and nearly another 100-yard performance. Travis Kelce was Travis Kelce.

2. Darrell Henderson

Darrell Henderson’s TD equity was way too high for his price, so it was nice to see him come through with two scores. 

Thursday-Monday Lineup

First off, yes I’m mad at myself for ruining this lineup with Hunt/Cleveland. More importantly, let’s talk about the Thursday-Monday slate for a second. In my opinion, this slate has the softest/most inefficient ownership in all of NFL DFS. People load up on the Thursday game and overlook the other island games. If Tua Tagovailoa had been on the main slate at minimum price, he would have been chalk. I can say the exact same thing about Diontae Johnson. 

Lastly, this is my favorite type of build and I wish it was doable every single week on the main slate — an all-around cheap game stack with high ceiling and expectation plays elsewhere. One of my strongest beliefs when it comes to the correlation of stacking is that ceilings are most positively correlated for cheap stacks. Think of it this way: It’s a lot easier for a pairing like Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki to both go over 20 than it would be for a pair of studs (like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf or even Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce) to each go over 30. 

Takeaways

Hindsight is always 20/20, but perhaps there’s a wonderful lesson to learn on projected efficiency vs. projected pace. Last week’s offensive efficiency report is posted below, and what stands out to me is the fact that Dallas/New England actually popped as the second-fastest game. 

New England committed to stopping the run, leading to 50-plus pass attempts from Dak Prescott and a slate-breaking performance from CeeDee Lamb. For years, I’ve preached pace over everything in NBA DFS; perhaps NFL DFS merits the same approach.