Shane Baz DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz was dominant on Tuesday, pitching seven shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 7-0 win over the Pirates. Baz racked up strikeouts against the team that drafted him, throwing his curveball 35 percent of the time with a 50% whiff rate on the pitch. He posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 69 strikeouts in 79 innings in 2024, but 2025 marks the first year that he will have the opportunity to pitch a full season. A huge breakout could be coming for the former top prospect, and he should be universally rostered in fantasy.

Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Shane Baz hasn't put up great numbers in his two Grapefruit League starts, but despite another rough showing on Thursday against the Washington Nationals in which he gave up four earned runs on five hits while walking none and striking out two in 4 1/3 innings, he was encouraged with his outing. "That was the best four-run game I've ever pitched," Baz told manager Kevin Cash. The 25-year-old was able to pitch into the fifth inning and showed improved control and command of his pitches. Overall, Baz has given up 10 earned runs with four walks and five strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings. It hasn't been pretty, but he continues to improve his control and command after missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. The arrow is pointing up, but the fact that Baz hasn't thrown more than 108 2/3 frames in a single season keeps his upside low entering 2025 as a back-end fantasy starter, at best.

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz tossed his third consecutive quality start in Saturday's 7-2 victory over the Red Sox, allowing two earned runs on just three hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings of work, picking up his fourth win. Baz has looked good since coming off of the IL in July after his recovery from Tommy John surgery, other than perhaps some command issues which he's cleaned up as of late, with just four walks compared to 23 strikeouts over his last four starts. The righty looked like he had a promising future before requiring Tommy John, and that still looks to be the case after he posted a 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 14 starts. While the 13.2% K-BB% overall doesn't jump off the page, the last four starts were more in line with what managers should expect from the former first-rounder next season, as he pitched to a 20.9% K-BB% over that timeframe.