FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 265 in Las Vegas. This slate is entirely different from last week in multiple ways. For starters, we have more than nine fights to work with, which is great as it means more ways to get unique. Additionally, we have more than the usual closely lined fights this week, so stances are going to be important this week.
As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter or in the MMA DFS Discord with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.
Johnny Munoz vs. Jamey Simmons
Munoz, -265; Simmons, +215, DraftKings Sportsbook
Munoz is coming off his UFC debut where he technically lost a decision to Nate Maness in August of last year. I use the word technically there, because I thought it was a complete robbery even with the point deduction. Anyway, Munoz is an exciting prospect, as he is a multi-time world champion in BJJ and high-level black belt. Six of his 10 career wins have come by submission, and he will hold a grappling advantage over the majority of this division, especially at the lower level. Additionally, he has a strong kicking game and solid wrestling as well. Simmons is coming off a knockout loss in the first-round to Giga Chikadze in November. I consider Simmons to be very low level, and I’m not sure that he should be in the UFC and likely won’t last very long. This is also a bad matchup for him as Simmons typically likes to go to the ground, which would be a big mistake against Munoz who is likely to take the fight there himself. Outside of landing something heavy in the first round, Simmons is drawing nearly dead in this matchup. Munoz is going to land takedowns and has good control on top while working to hunt for a submission. Munoz by submission is the official pick but he should score well even in a decision victory making him a strong play on DraftKings.
Melissa Gatto vs. Victoria Leonardo
Gatto, -110; Leonardo, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Gatto last fought in 2018 and will be making her UFC debut in this matchup. She also served a one-year USADA suspension during that span and had multiple fights scrapped. I am not exaggerating when I say that I have no idea how she is even money in this matchup. Gatto has very poor striking and is extremely hittable on the feet. She has bad takedown defense as well and gets stuck on her back for rounds at a time hardly even working to get back up. Just two fights ago she was controlled for nearly the whole 15 minutes against a 40-year-old fighter with a subpar record on the regional scene. Even in her last fight in 2018, she was taken down and controlled repeatedly and lost every minute of the fight until threatening with a triangle off her back and finishing with a kimura. The only real positive thing that I can say is that she is a purple belt in BJJ and is aggressive in looking for triangles and armbars off her back. It is possible that she made some improvements during the time off, but they would have to be monumental improvements for me to think she belongs at this level. Leonardo is coming off a knockout loss to Manon Fiorot in January who is one of the most dangerous prospects in the division. Prior to that, she came through as an underdog on Dana White’s Contender Series by landing three takedowns and getting the stoppage victory via ground and pound. She has fought the much higher level of competition and has Gatto covered in every area of this matchup. Her wrestling skills along with Gatto’s willingness to give up takedowns and lose minutes on the mat has me very confident that Leonardo is the better minute winner in this matchup. Outside of getting caught by an armbar or triangle while in top position, she rolls comfortably here, and she is a good underdog to target this week on DraftKings.
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Miles Johns vs. Anderson Dos Santos
Johns, -210; Dos Santos, +175, DraftKings Sportsbook
Johns is coming off a third-round knockout victory over Kevin Nativdad in October. He is 11-1 professionally with six of his 11 wins coming by decision. He is a former Dana White Contender Series winner and comes from a wrestling background. He has shown improvements with his boxing the last couple fights, but his cardio is still a significant concern for me as he noticeably slows down and becomes too hittable for comfort later in the rounds. Additionally, he does not wrestle as much as I would like to see as he has a wrestling advantage over many opponents in this division but seems to think he is a striker, which does not make much sense to me. Dos Santos is coming off a first-round submission victory over Martin Day in November, his first UFC win. Dos Santos is not the most skilled or technical fighter by any means, but he is willing to go for it and I love to see that out of a fighter. He is clearly more comfortable in the grappling realm as 12 of his 21 career wins have come by submission. On the feet, he likely carries more power than Johns and could land some powerful overhands while threatening the takedown. Eventually, I see this fight hitting the mat and while I think Johns could be fine in top position, Dos Santos is the better submission grappler and is crafty enough to make things interesting, even on bottom. It is tough for me to feel confident picking a side in this matchup because if Johns wrestles then he likely covers his price tag comfortably. But I can’t trust him to do that entirely and Dos Santos has more finishing upside for DraftKings making him my preferred play. Johns by decision is the official pick.
Manel Kape vs. Ode Osbourne
Kape, -200; Osbourne, +175, DraftKings Sportsbook
Kape is coming off a split-decision loss his last time out in March against Matheus Nicolau. He is currently 0-2 in the UFC but has faced some of the best talent in the division through his two UFC bouts. He gets a step down in competition level here against Osbourne, who is a dangerous finisher but much less proven and talented than the other two fighters Kape has faced thus far. Osbourne is coming off an exciting first-round knockout victory over Jerome Rivera in February. He is a very aggressive starter and eight of his 12 career fights have ended inside the first round. He is a slick grappler, but Kape is a credentialed black belt. Osbourne has some power on the feet as well, but Kape is again more powerful. The only issue I have with Kape is that he is not aggressive enough and is generally a slow starter and willing to let guys out pace him especially early. Regardless, even if Osbourne has success in the first round, he will need to finish him because Kape is going to take over as the fight goes on. Kape by knockout is the official pick and this is a good fight to target as I am expecting a finish either way.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Jessica Penne
Kowalkiewicz, -125; Penne, +105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Kowalkiewicz last fought in February of 2020 when she dropped a unanimous decision to Xiaonan Yan. She is currently on a four-fight losing streak and it’s clear that she does not belong near the top of this division. To her credit though, she has had one of the toughest strength of schedules for anyone and despite losing most of those fights she has had moments and been competitive at times. She is a volume-based striker whose game can work against the lower levels of the division, but when facing someone that is more technically sound, they comfortably outpace her on the feet. Meanwhile, Penne is coming off a split-decision victory over Lupita Godinez in April as she got back in the win column after a four-year layoff. Despite getting the victory, I was not impressed with the current state of her game either. She is more of a grappler and averages 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. She will need to execute a similar game plan as the Godinez fight as Kowalkiewicz should be winning the striking exchanges. Overall, this is not a fight that interests me, for monetary or entertainment reasons. I expect Kowalkiewicz to keep the fight standing enough to win minutes, but I am not confident in either fighter to do the right thing here. Kowalkiewicz by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on DraftKings.
Alonzo Menifield vs. Ed Herman
Menifield, -240; Herman, +195, DraftKings Sportsbook
Menifield is coming off a first round “submission” victory over Fabio Cherant in March, which snapped a two-fight losing skid. I use the quotes around submission because he basically just made Cherant tap out due to shoulder pressure. It was a very odd exchange where Cherant pulled guillotine and did not let go while Menifield just pressed down on his face with his shoulder until he tapped. Anyway, Menifield is a busted prospect at this point with minimal skills and poor fight IQ. He is extremely big and powerful and always live for an early knockout. But if that knockout does not materialize in the first couple minutes, then he is in some serious trouble. He has repeatedly gassed out hard after just a few minutes and continuously clinches up even against better grapplers that will gladly tire him out that way. Glaring holes aside, this is still a very winnable matchup for him as he will face Ed Herman who is coming off a third-round submission over Mike Rodriguez. Herman is currently on a three-fight win streak and needs to implement a similar game plan this week as he did in the Rodriguez fight. Stay alive early and just out last him and use your grappling advantage. That is easier said than done though as 40-year-old Herman is old, stiff and slow and he does not react well to being hit. He has been knocked out three times in his career and there is a high likelihood that Menifield will drop him with one of the first punches that land. Menifield by knockout is the official pick but he is not a lock by any means as we have seen this time and time again with early knockout or bust fighters and Herman is a live underdog despite how gross it makes you feel.
Drako Rodriguez vs. Vince Morales
Rodriguez, -110; Morales, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Rodriguez is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Aiemann Zahabi in his UFC debut in February. He is 7-2 professionally with four of his wins coming by submission. Just three of his nine fights have made it out of the first round as he is an aggressive finisher but also liable to be finished. Meanwhile, Morales is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles to defend leg kicks and takedowns. In theory, Rodriguez does have the skillset to beat him in that he has shown the ability to land some heavy leg kicks and is liable to mix in takedowns. However, if he does not come in with the right game plan then he is likely in trouble as Morales is a better technical boxer that is going to throw more volume and will have a durable advantage as well. This is going to be a competitive fight, but my lean is Rodriguez as the more well-rounded fighter that should be able to land takedowns which makes him my preferred play on DraftKings as well. Rodriguez by decision is the official pick.
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Rafael Fiziev vs. Bobby Green
Fiziev, -280; Green, +225, DraftKings Sportsbook
Fiziev is coming off a first-round knockout over Renato Moicano his last time out in December. He is 9-1 professionally with six of those wins coming by knockout. He comes from an extensive kickboxing background and is currently the striking coach at Tiger Muay Thai. He is extremely powerful both with his punches and kicks. Additionally, he has mixed in a little bit of wrestling as well as he landed a takedown in both of his fights that went the full distance. Green is coming off a decision loss to Thiago Moises in October. Green is a good technical boxer that will throw in high volume and has also mixed in some takedowns at times as well. He often finds himself in close decisions that never seem to go his way in the judges’ eyes. He should be able to give Fiziev some issues in the striking in that Green is difficult to outland on the feet. Additionally, Fiziev’s defense still needs to improve for him to ever become a serious threat in this division. Overall, I see this being a competitive striking match, but I favor Fiziev as the younger, improving fighter with more a lot more power. Fiziev by knockout is the official pick.
Casey Kenney vs. Song Yadong
Kenney, -110; Yadong, -110, DraftKings Sportsbook
Kenney is coming off a split-decision loss to Dominick Cruz his last time out in March. Kenney is a high-volume striker with nasty leg kicks and above-average boxing. He comes from a high-level Judo background and is a black belt in BJJ and has never been submitted in his professional career. He has also shown off very good durability and has never been finished. Yadong is coming off a decision loss to Kyler Phillips his last time out in March which was his first loss since 2016. He is a flashy striker with fast hands and six knockouts to his record. My biggest issue with Yadong is that he cannot stop takedowns as he currently defends at just 56%. To his credit, he is good at limiting damage on the mat and working back to his feet quickly, but those takedowns can still swing rounds in competitive fights. This is a fun fight and I expect it to be very close in the striking, but I slightly lean Kenney as I expect him to throw a little more volume and think those leg kicks can be an issue here. He also should have a grappling advantage if he decides to take that approach, but I am expecting a high-paced striking match. Kenney by decision is the official pick but there are better fighters to target this week.
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
Torres, -140; Hill, +120, DraftKings Sportsbook
Torres is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Sam Hughes in what was a doctor-stoppage TKO in between rounds, resulting in her first career knockout victory. She comes from a kickboxing background and is very well-rounded. She has struggled against the elite tier of this division but has handled up and comers with relative ease including a dominant win over Angela Hill back in 2016. Since then, Hill has certainly made improvements and the biggest factor in that fight was the takedowns which Hill has historically not been able to defend until recently. She has certainly improved her takedown defense but that does not mean she can’t get taken down as she was still taken down in all four of her most recent fights. Additionally, Torres is a good striker and I expect this to be very competitive while it plays out on the feet with Torres being slightly more active. Because I expect the striking to be very close with a slight lean toward Torres along with her potential to land takedowns and control Hill on the ground, I have to favor her in this matchup. Torres by decision is the official pick.
Vicente Luque vs. Michael Chiesa
Luque, -115; Chiesa,-105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Luque is coming off a first-round submission victory over Tyron Woodley in March in what was a very exciting fight. He is 13-3 in the UFC and has only lost to the elite of this division in Stephen Thompson and Leon Edwards outside of his UFC debut. He is very well-rounded fighter as he is a dangerous striker and also holds a black belt in BJJ with seven of his 20 career wins coming by submission. I really like Luque and have been higher on him than the market in the past, but this is a very difficult matchup for him. The two issues I have with Luque are that he is very hittable on the feet which does not really matter in this matchup. However, the other issue is his takedown defense at just 65% and has been taken down and controlled by much worse wrestlers than Chiesa. Chiesa is coming off a five round main event victory over Neil Magny in January. He is currently on a four-fight win streak since moving up to 170 pounds and is legitimately one of the best wrestlers in the division. I think he is generally underrated by most people because his striking leaves more to be desired as he is pretty one-dimensional. However, he is very good at doing what he does best and that is landing takedowns and banking control time. He has over 10 minutes of control time in each of his last three fights and should be able to land multiple takedowns in this matchup as well. Chiesa is going to be winning minutes in this fight so it just comes down to how often you think Luque could knock him out standing or submit him on the mat. Both are in play but less likely than Chiesa winning a decision or finding a submission himself. Chiesa by decision is the official pick and he is a strong play on DraftKings this week.
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Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
Aldo, -115; Munhoz, -105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Aldo is coming off a decision victory over Marlon Vera in December, his first win in the bantamweight division. Aldo is a legend in the fight game and clearly still has some skills. However, it is clear to me that he does not belong in the elite tier of this division. Fortunately for him, neither does Munhoz. I expect this fight to be competitive early on with Aldo landing the more powerful punches and Munhoz getting off on leg kicks as usual. I do not see a clear grappling advantage one way or the other and neither fighter is aggressive in taking the fight to the mat anyway. Full disclosure, I do not have a great lean here even after digging into the matchup and grinding the tape. I lean Munhoz as the younger fighter with better durability who is likely to be more active as well. Munhoz by decision is the official pick but there are better targets in the mid-range this week.
Ciryl Gane vs. Derrick Lewis
Gane, -380; Lewis, +290, DraftKings Sportsbook
(Check out Jonah Shiffman’s betting breakdown of the Gane/Lewis fight.)
Gane is coming off an impressive decision victory over Alexander Volkov his last time out in June. He is just 9-0 professionally but everyone has quickly realized that he is one of the best fighters in the heavyweight division. He has a well-rounded skillset and fights with a very high IQ which you do not see often in this division. This fight is pretty straight forward to me, as Lewis’ only path to victory is to win by knockout. It is no secret he is live to land something big, as he has the most knockouts in heavyweight history. However, Gane is more skilled wherever this fight takes place and has basically passed this test already when he fought Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Gane is likely to maintain range and avoid any power shots from Lewis. If Lewis gasses out or gets lazy defensively then Gane will finish him. Outside of that, he should cruise to a unanimous decision, but I lean towards a finish this time. Gane by knockout is the official pick.
