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Josh Gross
Let’s take a look at the opening odds, early betting pick and breakdown of Saturday’s UFC 265 main event. UFC 265 takes place Aug. 7 at the Toyota Center in Houston, in front of what figures to be a raucous live crowd as the Lone Star state hosts it’s second UFC show in the last three months.
The main event this weekend is for the interim heavyweight title and features undefeated No. 1 contender Ciryl Gane against Derrick Lewis, who figures to have the full support of the Houston crowd in what figures to be a home game for “The Black Beast” as he makes his second attempt to touch UFC gold after losing a title fight in 2018 to Daniel Cormier.
UFC 265 betting odds: Gane vs. Lewis
Here are the latest odds for Gane vs. Lewis, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Gane enters this bout as a heavy priced at -380, meaning you have to lay $380 to win $100 with a bet on the undefeated Frenchman. Lewis is entrenched as the underdog with a betting line of +290, meaning a $100 bet would profit $290 should Lewis make history and become an interim champion Saturday night.
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Gane vs. Lewis fight breakdown
This is a matchup that not many saw coming together, but the UFC desperately needed a headlining matchup for a Houston PPV card, and so they called on Derrick Lewis to save the day. This matchup is considered an interim title bout, with the winner likely going on to face current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou to unify their belts later this year or early next year. Gane enters the matchup as a large favorite, and that makes a decent amount of sense considering that over the course of his nine professional bouts he’s shown almost no holes in his game. Gane is relatively new to MMA, with his professional debuting taking place in the summer of 2018, so he’s vaulted himself to the top of the sport in just about three years. Lewis on the other hand, has been fighting under the UFC banner since 2014 and is tied for the UFC record with 12 knockouts within the promotion. Stylistically, Lewis is most known for his uncanny power punching ability which is oftentimes the great equalizer in his fights, as he doesn’t have great striking or grappling metrics and historically has had trouble with his gas tank. That doesn’t seem to matter for Lewis though, as he has time and time again come back from spots where he was losing just to land a knockout blow and grab a victory. Gane on the other hand is quite the opposite as Lewis and is a rarity for the heavyweight division. Gane relies on footwork, technical boxing ability and speed in a division that is oftentimes lacking fighters with that unique skill set. Gane also has some grappling ability, with 33% of his victories coming via submission, though he has landed less than one takedown per 15 minutes inside the UFC octagon.
MMA betting picks — UFC 265
On paper, this figures to be a matchup that lines up well for Gane, as he is the more well-rounded martial artist who carries advantages in nearly every aspect imaginable within the sport outside of pure punching power. He has a more diverse set of attacks on the feet and is surely a better grappler than Lewis should he close the distance successfully. However, Lewis is somebody who I’ve just come to accept will defy the odds time and time again, and at -400 I’m not sure there’s any value in betting Gane straight, despite all the advantages he holds here. Instead of looking at the moneyline, I instead am attacking the total in this fight, which is set at 4.5 rounds. I like the under in this spot and think we’re getting a discount due to Gane (who is expected to win this fight almost 80% of the time) winning his last two five round bouts by decision. By betting the under in this spot we embrace the full range of outcomes that Derrick Lewis provides: 80% of his career wins have come via knockout, and not all of those fights were against guys who are as skilled as Gane. If Lewis wins here, I’d say there’s at least a 90% chance that his win will come via knockout. Additionally, Lewis is also susceptible to being hurt, and has been finished in five of his seven career fights. Lewis historically has not dealt well with getting hit to the body, and Gane is known for landing strikes to all three levels: head, body, legs and landed a combined 75 strikes to the body/legs of Alexander Volkov in his last fight. Gane is a conservative striker who doesn’t take too many risks trying to get his opponents out of the cage, but it’s just hard to see a scenario where Lewis survives for 25 minutes (he never has gone the distance in a five round fight before) without winning by knockout or getting finished by Gane on the feet or on the ground.
Pick: Ciryl Gane by Knockout
Bet: Ciryl Gane/Derrick Lewis Under 4.5 Rounds 2x until -165, 1.5x until -180, 1x until -205
Be sure to check out the FTNBets MMA page for the latest free content, picks, props and more for UFC 265. To get the best odds, check out the FTN Prop Shop. Want more free content? Check out the Undisputed MMA Show with Jon Kelly and Jonah Shiffman.
