On The Bump – MLB DFS Pitching Primer (5/24)

Welcome to On The Bump – MLB DFS Pitching Primer. This article aims to not only produce transparent picks for MLB DFS, but to teach my process of playing pitchers in MLB DFS. Each weekday, I will go through my entire process of selecting pitchers for the MLB DFS slate at hand. Some at first glance, and some with in-depth research. You will learn why I like certain pitchers, why I do not, and why I prefer some pitchers for cash games and others for tournaments. 

For those unfamiliar, there is a vetting process that pitchers go through in this column, as we move through the processes to find who the plays are for a given slate. These steps are as follows:

1. Pitchers to Vet – We go through which pitchers stick out, and are worth looking into for the slate at hand based on various factors.
2. Matchups – Dive into each pitcher's matchup for the given day, and ensure the matchup is worth keeping the pitcher for the slate at hand.
3. Pitch Data/Analysis – After matchups, the science of pitch data is discussed. This will show whether a pitcher is in a good spot based on pitch data against the opposing team. Then, we analyze the pitcher for the given slate.
4. Cash or GPP – After the research is done, we will decide which pitchers to play on which sites, and in which formats.

Let's get in this! 

Pitchers to vet

(These are pitchers that stand out at first glance based on matchup, run totals, and Vegas lines)

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (vs San Diego)
Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (vs St. Louis)
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres (@ Milwaukee)
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies (@ New York Mets)

Pitch Data/Analysis/Matchup 

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers (vs San Diego)

Woodruff takes on a San Diego team that's slowly getting healthy again. He's coming off his lowest strikeout total of the year against Kansas City, but this could be a nice bounce-back game for him. Woodruff has been excellent averting 10.3 K/9 this season while giving up less than one home run per nine innings. 

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (vs St. Louis)

Revenge narrative for Lynn, who spent the first part of his career with the Cardinals. Lynn's seven starts this season have been extremely tough, but he's fared well with a 1.55 ERA and 10.2 K/9. At home, Lynn has been even better raising his K/9 to 11.5 to go along with a 0.84 WHIP. St. Louis tends to struggle against right-handed pitching, with five hitters striking out over 24% of the time. 

Blake Snell, San Diego Padres (@ Milwaukee)

We finally saw Snell pitch past five innings in his last start, striking out 11 Rockies while allowing just one run. Walks have really hurt Snell in earlier starts this season, but allowing just one free pass in his last start could indicate progress for him. He has struck out his share of hitters with a 33% K rate and 13.4 K/9, but he has been stay in the strike zone. 

Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies (@ New York Mets)

Gomber is my favorite GPP arm. We need to continue to attack this Mets lineup until they start to return players from the IL. Gomber is averaging just one home run per nine innings while striking out 9.3 per nine. New York is striking out 26% of the time over the last seven days while scoring just two runs over their last two games. 

Cash or GPP

Cash arms 

Lynn
Woodruff

GPP arms

Gomber
Lynn
Woodruff
Snell