Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Kansas City Chiefs

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Defending Champs.

Booms

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB

Some guys have all the luck. Yes, I just quoted Rod Stewart, but Edwards-Helaire’s landing spot is about as good looking as Stewart’s hair circa 1978. Edwards-Helaire goes from the National Champion LSU Tigers to the perfect landing spot with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs.

While there was some debate heading into the draft as to who was this year’s top rookie running back, that’s all been settled. Edwards-Helaire is the perfect fit for an Andy Reid offense with his Brian Westbrook-esque skill set. Edwards-Helaire is a tad undersized, but is still capable of carrying a three-down role.

Of course, we can’t overlook the fact that Damien Williams is still on this roster. Expect a committee out of the gate, but the cream tends to rise in the NFL. Edwards-Helaire is the superior player and will take over in relatively short order. That said, the hype surrounding Edwards-Helaire will likely inflate his draft stock. Make sure you go into the season with reasonable expectations for Edwards-Helaire. He may not be a big factor in September, but ability and fit in the offense will lead to healthy fantasy production down the stretch. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Patrick Mahomes, QB

Is a fine, slightly chilled pour of Clase Azul reposado delicious? Yes. Yes, it very much is. It’s obvious. Admittedly, Mahomes’ classification as a fantasy BOOM is as well, but there’s strong evidence suggesting reaching for the reigning Super Bowl MVP is a savvy move, even in a single-QB format.

No, I’m not openly advocating investing in a QB in Round 1 of a 12-team exercise that scores four points per passing TD. Heck, even in Round 2 it’s questionable. But anytime after Mahomes, should be fixed atop any cheat-sheet list, ahead of Lamar Jackson.

The $400-million man is set to blowtorch the opposition. A dislocated knee temporarily shelved his 2019 season and his red-zone efficiency was largely tepid (QB33 in RZ completion%), but he still posted an obscene 122.9 passer rating on chucks beyond 20 yards, averaged 287.9 pass yards per game and totaled 28 TDs in 14 contests.

With an embarrassment of riches surrounding him — Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Hardman, CEH, Damien Williams and Sammy Watkins — and an upgraded offensive line, Mahomes has enough plutonium pumping through the veins to turn nuclear. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he totals 45 touchdowns, close to 5000 passing yards and 200-250 rushing yards this fall. Never forget, Ryan Pace. Never forget. — Brad Evans

Busts

Sammy Watkins, WR

A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, Watkins has the ability to be the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in any given week. But good luck knowing which week that will be. Otherwise, he’s going to have a hard time cracking the top 30.

Just look at last season. Watkins went nuts in Week 1 following an untimely injury to Tyreek Hill. He then managed just one more top-30 fantasy finish over the remainder of the regular season. Sure, that massive weekly ceiling does have some appeal, especially in the Chiefs’ turbo-charged offense, but Watkins literally has a zero-point fantasy floor. There are better upside options to target in the late rounds. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB

When fondly reflecting about the LSU product, prospective investors play Michael Jackson throwback “P.Y.T” on loop. The hype surrounding the young rusher, created upon his selection by Andy Reid and Co. with the last pick of Round 1 in April’s NFL Draft, has officially reached hysterical levels. People are reaching for the rookie as early as Round 1, which is extremely reckless in redraft leagues. (Read my full anti-CEH rant here).

To be fair, CEH is plucky, deceptively powerful and versatile, a player with a similar stature and skill set as Maurice Jones-Drew. Last season for the FBS college champion Tigers, he totaled 3.2 yards after contact per attempt, ranked RB13 in total missed tackles forced and recorded 21 carries of 15-plus yards. Decisive and ultra-elusive in the open field, he’s a terrific playmaker who will leave linebackers bewildered.

The primary issue for CEH to deliver on mammoth expectations is Damien Williams. Nate Taylor, who covers KC for The Athletic, is convinced the veteran will command the heavy side of a 70-30 split, at least initially. Even if the gap closes, the reporter still views it 55-45 Williams. After Williams compiled 98.2 total yards per game and 10 TDs over the Chiefs’ final eight games of 2020, it shouldn’t floor anyone. Going roughly 40 picks on average after CEH, he’s a tremendous RB3.

Unless the incumbent is hampered by significant injury, His Helairness is set to register 9-12 touches per game. Maybe he’s Austin Ekeler the sequel, but it’s hard bypassing an Aaron Jones, Chris Carson or Leonard Fournette for a light-side timeshare back. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Mecole Hardman, WR

With game-breaking speed, Hardman is a big play waiting to happen. He entered the league last season as a relatively green wideout, and showed that he was certainly worth his Day 2 pedigree. Hardman found the end zone on 23% of his receptions and his four catches of 40-plus yards tied for the 12th among wide receivers.

This enormous ceiling is very appealing heading into 2020, especially in the potent Chiefs offense. Of course, the key is going to be target volume. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill remain the top targets, but there’s a very strong possibility that Hardman slides into the No. 3 spot. We could very well see his targets double from last year. That potential uptick in targets makes Hardman one of the most appealing wideouts to target just before you get into the late rounds of your drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Mecole Hardman, WR

Speedy Gonzalez after three espressos and a Red Bull chaser. That, mi amigos, is how fast Hardman is. His blazing wheels combined with Mahomes’ bazooka arm is akin to a marriage of chili and cheese piled high on a plate of tortilla chips. Delicious.

Hardman’s line was terribly lopsided, yet promising, in his inaugural campaign. Netting just 6.9 percent of the target share, he grabbed 26 passes for 538 yards and six touchdowns. His 13.7 yards per target and 20.7 yards per catch set the pace among WRs. He also ranked No. 3 in average target separation and No. 4 in RACR, which measures how many receiving yards a player creates for every yard thrown at him.  

Admittedly, the WR/TE room in KC is crowded. For Hardman to advance his catch and yardage totals to tastier levels it would likely have to come at a cost to someone else. Who takes the hit: Tyreek, Watkins, Kelce? The crystal ball is foggy. Ultimately, if the sophomore can sustain last season’s TD production and eclipses 750 yards, he should creep into the backend-WR3 class. That happens and he’ll leave buyers in the black at his WR41 (93.8) ADP. — Brad Evans