Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week in this space, Brad Evans will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often moronic mind. Today’s topic: The overblown Clyde Edwards-Helaire hype.
At one point on the spectrum of early life, it hits any impressionable young mind like a bolt of lightning.
You fantasize. You obsess. You beg and plead with your overly peeved parents with a live-or-die urgency.
You must have it.
You must play with it.
While traversing the aisles of Toys ‘R Us as a prepubescent in the mid-1980s that insatiable desire consumed my every waking thought and drove immediate family members to threaten unthinkable acts if my demonstrative behavior wasn’t quelled.
Displayed beautifully behind a thick sheet of plastic and adorned with vibrant red-, silver- and black- printed cardboard, it was the center of my universe.
The item was Optimus Prime, the hero of the Autobots and central subject of my favorite Saturday morning cartoon. It transformed. It housed a fully functional secret headquarters. It came with vivid decals.
Internally I told myself, “At any cost, no matter the number or type of chores involved.”
For a 9-year-old determined to score one and become the coolest kid on the third-grade playground, you’re damn right more did meet the eye.
When an influx of fresh talent enters the league each NFL season, similar feelings enrapture fantasy owners.
This year, the description best applies to Kansas City RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Most fantasy drafters are hellbent on getting their grubby little hands on Patrick Mahomes’ shiny new toy. After all, he, as Andy Reid described him, is the next Brian Westbrook, a three-down dynamo equipped with all the tools to terrorize defenses, and leaguemates alike, for years to come.
Last year with the National Champion LSU Tigers, the 5-foot-9, 207-pound pinball lit up scoreboards. Plucky, deceptively powerful, explosive and equipped with jukes for days, the playmaker totaled the 13th-most missed tackles and the 23rd-most yards after contact (3.2 YAC/att) at the FBS level. On tape, he moves with the nimbleness of an overly energetic gerbil. No doubt, he’ll leave linebackers knotted and vexed at the next level.
Still, despite his enticing qualities, it’s patently absurd to draft His Helaireness (insert Michal Jordan cackling meme) at or above his RB14 (21.7 overall) ADP.
Why? Two words: Damien Williams.
Stupidly cast aside by the unconvinced, the veteran was ridiculously efficient down the homestretch last year. From Week 9 through the Super Bowl, he averaged 98.3 total yards per game, scored 10 touchdowns (in eight contests) and notched 3.71 yards after contact per attempt. Benefiting from ultra-friendly fronts (8.1 stack percentage seen), he was equally spectacular during the entire regular season, forcing a missed tackle on 24.8% of his touches while slotting in at RB16 in yards created per carry. Right now, he’s a bargain buy nearly four rounds after CEH clears the queue (Williams ADP: RB31, 64.2).
Yes, Reid historically likes to lean on one RB, but with Williams in a contract year, the free-agent-to-be will take on a larger role than most anticipate. Chiefs insider Nate Taylor from The Athletic forecasts Williams will shoulder the heavy side of a 70-30 split over the first few weeks of the regular season. Taylor also believes the touch distribution, at its tightest, is likely to tilt 55-45 DW-CEH. To put that in perspective, you’re sinking a Round 2 pick into a running back plugged-in sources peg for anywhere between 7.5 to 11.3 touches per game.
Madness.
If you think he’s worth every penny in yearly leagues, some balding jackass has a luxury yacht, one that would rival Jerry Jones’ opulent white monstrosity, for sale. If you don’t follow the flock, toss a lowball offer out to his draft day pursuer, miffed by the greenhorn’s slow start, sometime in October.
Edwards-Helaire is a fresh-out-of-the-box plaything with alluring upside, but the current bull market says you’re greatly overpaying for his services.
Leave him on the shelf.
