NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-113/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 201.5 (-113) after it opened @ 202.5 (-114).
Pros
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
- Justin Fields has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (190.0) this year than he did last year (149.0).
- The Lions pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, allowing 7.96 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in football.
- When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit’s group of safeties has been lousy this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to pass on 47.5% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being forecasted in this game) generally lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher rush volume.
- In this contest, Justin Fields is forecasted by the projection model to average the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 26.5.
- This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has conceded a puny 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
174
Passing Yards
174
Passing Yards
