Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 80.5 (-120) after it opened @ 80.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- This week, Travis Kelce is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 9.5 targets.
- After totaling 67.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has gotten better this season, currently pacing 76.0 per game.
- Travis Kelce’s 60.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 55.4.
- With an outstanding 84.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (100th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks among the top pass-game tight ends in football.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a giant 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
