Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 279.5 (-114) after it opened @ 285.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.2.
- With a fantastic 69.1% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league.
- With an impressive 7.59 adjusted yards-per-target (78th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Broncos defense this year (81.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a giant 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- Patrick Mahomes has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (290.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
