Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 279.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 279.5 (-114) after it opened @ 285.5 (-114).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the predictive model to wind up with the 6th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.2.
With a fantastic 69.1% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the most on-target passers in the league.
With an impressive 7.59 adjusted yards-per-target (78th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes stands among the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Broncos defense this year (81.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The Chiefs are a giant 7-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (290.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards