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Week 8 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

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Baker Mayfield

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 8

Bills vs. Buccaneers

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 231.5 (-115) after it opened @ 228.5 (-115).

Pros

  • At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.
  • Baker Mayfield has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (217.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (79.2% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons

  • The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
  • With a subpar 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target (22nd percentile) this year, Baker Mayfield has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the NFL.

Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards

Previous Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rachaad White from EV Insight Next Week 8 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Bijan Robinson from EV Insight