Week 8 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-114/-114).

Pros

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
In this contest, Chris Godwin is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 84th percentile among wide receivers with 7.8 targets.
With an extraordinary 22.6% Target% (84th percentile) this year, Chris Godwin ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
Chris Godwin has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (71.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).

Cons

The Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 56.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
Chris Godwin’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 74.7% to 69.7%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards