Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-115) after it opened @ 21.5 (-114).
Pros
- Right now, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (62.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
- Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to be the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.55 seconds per play.
- Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
- Noah Fant has posted quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (28.0).
- Noah Fant’s receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 78.4% to 91.3%.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a huge 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- Noah Fant has notched quite a few less air yards this season (18.0 per game) than he did last season (25.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Noah Fant has been relied on much less in his team’s air attack.
- This year, the fierce Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a paltry 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 10th-best in the NFL.
- This year, the formidable Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
