Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Eagles vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 95.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
- In this week’s contest, Tyreek Hill is projected by the model to rank in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 11.1 targets.
- Tyreek Hill has put up quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (120.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.83 seconds per play.
- After accumulating 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decline this season, now sitting at 124.0 per game.
- The Eagles pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.9%) to wideouts this year (58.9%).
- This year, the strong Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a mere 3.0 YAC.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia’s collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards
93
Receiving Yards
