Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 266.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- The projections expect Justin Herbert to throw 39.2 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 3rd-most among all QBs.
- With a fantastic record of 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Justin Herbert rates as one of the top quarterbacks in football this year.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 1.8% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a measly 209.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 7th-fewest in football.
- The Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 6.56 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in the league.
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City’s unit has been great this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards
262
Passing Yards
