Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-114) after it opened @ 73.5 (-113).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- In this contest, Travis Kelce is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 100th percentile among tight ends with 9.6 targets.
- Travis Kelce has posted a whopping 64.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
- Travis Kelce has gone out for fewer passes this year (68.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.1%).
- Travis Kelce’s 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a an impressive regression in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 80.0 rate.
- Travis Kelce’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging just 7.69 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.08 mark last season.
- Travis Kelce’s skills in picking up extra yardage have diminished this season, accumulating a mere 4.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.46 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
