Week 7 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Gerald Everett from EV Insight

Gerald EverettReceiving Yards

Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-114).

Pros

This game’s line implies a passing game script for the Chargers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Chargers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the projections to call 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
In this contest, Gerald Everett is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.
Gerald Everett’s 82.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a a noteworthy growth in his receiving prowess over last season’s 69.2% rate.

Cons

The projections expect the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 1.8% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
After accumulating 31.0 air yards per game last season, Gerald Everett has regressed heavily this season, now pacing 12.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Gerald Everett has been featured much less in his offense’s passing attack.
Gerald Everett has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (37.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards