Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Keaontay IngramRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Keaontay Ingram’s rushing yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-142) after it opened @ 37.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The predictive model expects the Cardinals to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.3% run rate.
- Our trusted projections expect Keaontay Ingram to be a more important option in his offense’s ground game this week (36.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Cardinals are a heavy 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 7th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Keaontay Ingram’s rushing effectiveness (2.28 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (21st percentile when it comes to RBs).
- This year, the porous Seahawks run defense has been torched for a staggering 3.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 31st-biggest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards
40
Rushing Yards
