Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-129) after it opened @ 52.5 (-119).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- With a 3-point advantage, the Buccaneers are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Rachaad White to accrue 14.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- After taking on 33.7% of his team’s carries last year, Rachaad White has played a bigger part in the running game this year, currently making up 54.2%.
Cons
- Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Buccaneers this year (a measly 55.6 per game on average).
- The Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football last year at run-game blocking.
- With a terrible total of 3.36 adjusted yards per carry (20th percentile) this year, Rachaad White places among the bottom running backs in the league at the position.
- Rachaad White rates as one of the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.41 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
