Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- In this game, Kylen Granson is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Kylen Granson’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 77.7% to 60.9%.
- Kylen Granson’s 4.9 adjusted yards per target this season shows a a significant decrease in his receiving skills over last season’s 7.3 figure.
- This year, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a meager 63.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
