Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kylen Granson from EV Insight

Kylen GransonReceiving Yards

Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
In this game, Kylen Granson is forecasted by the projection model to rank in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Kylen Granson’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 77.7% to 60.9%.
Kylen Granson’s 4.9 adjusted yards per target this season shows a a significant decrease in his receiving skills over last season’s 7.3 figure.
This year, the imposing Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a meager 63.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards