Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 16.5 (-114).
Pros
- Durham Smythe has gone out for fewer passes this year (75.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.1%).
- After totaling 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has made big progress this year, now pacing 18.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe’s 30.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last year’s 11.0 mark.
- Durham Smythe has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a remarkable 80.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.
- Durham Smythe’s 8.6 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a a meaningful growth in his receiving skills over last season’s 7.1 rate.
Cons
- With a 14-point advantage, the Dolphins are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards
19
Receiving Yards
