Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Durham Smythe from EV Insight

Durham SmytheReceiving Yards

Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 16.5 (-114).

Pros

Durham Smythe has gone out for fewer passes this year (75.7% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.1%).
After totaling 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has made big progress this year, now pacing 18.0 per game.
Durham Smythe’s 30.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a a significant progression in his receiving prowess over last year’s 11.0 mark.
Durham Smythe has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a remarkable 80.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.
Durham Smythe’s 8.6 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a a meaningful growth in his receiving skills over last season’s 7.1 rate.

Cons

With a 14-point advantage, the Dolphins are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards