Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Justice Hill from EV Insight

Justice HillRushing Yards

Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-118/-109).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-109) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).

Pros

This game’s line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5 points.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Justice Hill has been a more integral piece of his offense’s ground game this year (23.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.1%).
Justice Hill’s 32.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a a substantial gain in his rushing talent over last year’s 19.0 figure.
When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Tennessee’s group of DEs has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

Cons

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The projections expect the Ravens to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defense boasts the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.89 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Rushing Yards