Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the model to call 64.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry has run a route on 78.1% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to total 5.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.

Cons

With a 57.8% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the New England Patriots.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Hunter Henry’s 7.4 adjusted yards per target this season marks a a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last season’s 8.5 mark.
Hunter Henry’s ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this year, notching just 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.85 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards