Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the model to run 68.6 total plays in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.
- The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Saints this year (a whopping 61.2 per game on average).
- In this week’s game, Alvin Kamara is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 87th percentile among running backs with 16.2 carries.
- Alvin Kamara has been a more important option in his offense’s ground game this year (65.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (55.7%).
- Alvin Kamara has generated 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football when it comes to running backs (86th percentile).
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to run on 37.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- The Houston Texans defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, conceding just 3.80 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
