Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Bryce YoungPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Bryce Young’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (-110) after it opened @ 214.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
- The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Panthers as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
- This year, the porous Miami Dolphins defense has yielded a massive 263.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 9th-most in football.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The the Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Bryce Young has been among the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 5.33 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 3rd percentile.
- The Dolphins safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
