Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Addison from EV Insight

Jordan AddisonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Addison’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-114) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run 64.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.4 per game) this year.
In this contest, Jordan Addison is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
The model projects Jordan Addison to be much less involved in his offense’s pass attack in this week’s game (7.6% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.1% in games he has played).

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
Jordan Addison has been among the worst wideouts in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards