Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Williams from EV Insight

Jonathan WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 44.8% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Williams to notch 15.5 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Jonathan Williams’s ground effectiveness (4.91 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (78th percentile among RBs).

Cons

The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Howell this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Dallas Cowboys defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.43 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards