Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 192.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 192.5 (-110) after it opened @ 181.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Howell this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
210
Passing Yards
210
Passing Yards
