Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-114) after it opened @ 261.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 274.0 yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the NFL against the New England Patriots defense this year (67.1%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, surrendering 7.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
