Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 52.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has run for a lot more yards per game (59.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the best running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.78 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 94th percentile.
- The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 31st-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much less involved in his offense’s running game this week (46.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.8% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 96 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
- The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
