Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan from EV Insight

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Robert Tonyan has run a route on 59.8% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Robert Tonyan’s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 70.8% to 83.7%.
The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (59.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Cons

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling just 7.64 yards-per-target vs a 8.75 figure last year.
Robert Tonyan’s ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, averaging a measly 3.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards