Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jarrett Stidham from EV Insight

Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards

Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-125/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 241.5 (-125) after it opened @ 234.5 (-114).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Jarrett Stidham has been among the most accurate QBs in football this year with an impressive 66.7% Completion%, ranking in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards