Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-115) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Raiders are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Darren Waller has posted far fewer air yards this year (58.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
- Darren Waller’s 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 56.5.
- Darren Waller’s talent in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling a mere 3.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.32 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
