Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to notch 7.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
- Brandon Aiyuk has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
- Brandon Aiyuk has posted substantially more receiving yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (164.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
