Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 6.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 51.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
George Kittle’s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 74.2% to 78.6%.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (74.9%) to tight ends this year (74.9%).

Cons

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
George Kittle’s 39.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 46.2.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards