Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 67.5 (-114).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Raiders are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Davante Adams has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (87.0) this season than he did last season (101.0).
Davante Adams’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 59.8%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards