Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jordan Akins from EV Insight

Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-112/-117).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-117) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jordan Akins has notched many more receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 28.55 seconds per snap.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards