Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Deshaun Watson from EV Insight

Deshaun WatsonPassing Yards

Right now, Deshaun Watson’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has afforded their QB 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deshaun Watson to attempt 30.9 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) versus the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Washington Commanders safeties profile as the best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
232
Passing Yards