Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 89.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 46.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 16.5 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has been given 63.5% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Nick Chubb has grinded out 88.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (98th percentile).
Cons
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the 10th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Rushing Yards
77
Rushing Yards
