WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-105/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-105) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.41 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to notch 6.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass attack this season (20.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.8%).
- David Njoku has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (53.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 41.0) versus tight ends this year.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 7.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.86 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
