Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (+100) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among WRs.
Terry McLaurin has been among the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 69.0 yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 61.8% to 69.5%.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Terry McLaurin has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin’s 58.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 68.0.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards