Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. Browns
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-115) after it opened @ 78.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Commanders have been the 6th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 44.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to accrue 19.1 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this week (66.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.3% in games he has played).
- The Cleveland Browns defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.30 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Brian Robinson’s running effectiveness (3.82 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (13th percentile among RBs).
- Brian Robinson has been among the bottom running backs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.61 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
