Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-115) after it opened @ 78.5 (-114).

Pros

The Commanders have been the 6th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 44.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to accrue 19.1 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this week (66.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.3% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 5.30 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Brian Robinson’s running effectiveness (3.82 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (13th percentile among RBs).
Brian Robinson has been among the bottom running backs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.61 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 19th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards