Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cade OttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Cade Otton’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (76.8%) to tight ends this year (76.8%).
Cons
- The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 39.0) versus TEs this year.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.34 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
