Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 6.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has accumulated far more air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in football (77.4%) versus TEs this year (77.4%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 69.5%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards