Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-127) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to use backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- Gardner Minshew’s throwing effectiveness has been refined this season, averaging 8.55 yards-per-target compared to just 7.52 rate last season.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Gardner Minshew to attempt 31.8 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
- Gardner Minshew’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.4% to 61.4%.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the least yards in the NFL (just 201.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
225
Passing Yards
225
Passing Yards
