Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Miles SandersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-133) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Miles Sanders has run for quite a few more yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (57.0).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (134 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to use backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 4th-best group of DEs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have faced a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
99
Rushing Yards
99
Rushing Yards
