Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Juwan Johnson has gone out for fewer passes this season (68.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (34.6%).
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- Juwan Johnson has accrued many more air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.5% pass rate.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
- Juwan Johnson’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a measly 8.10 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 mark last year.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (65.6%) to TEs this year (65.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
