Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mac JonesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 233.5 (-113) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most yards in the league (260.0 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- Mac Jones’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.9% to 64.7%.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards
242
Passing Yards
